Crypto Traders Leaning Bearish in Short Term for Bitcoin as Post-2024 Halving Optimism Persists

Lisette Lémieux
25 Sep 2023
Despite Bitcoin (BTC) currently experiencing a consolidation phase, an analysis of past market cycles suggests that the cryptocurrency will likely see gains after the anticipated halving event in 2024, according to a data firm. While short-term sentiment leans bearish, many expect prices to recover post-halving.

Over the weekend, Bitcoin, the oldest cryptocurrency, maintained price stability with low trading volumes, hovering around the $26,000 mark. It experienced a 1.7% decline over the past 24 hours.

Leading the declines among major tokens were XRP and Dogecoin (DOGE), both dropping by 4% over the past 24 hours. Ether (ETH) saw a 0.9% decrease but outperformed the overall market, as the CoinDesk Market Index (CMI), a comprehensive tracker of numerous tokens, recorded a 1.1% slump.

Among cryptocurrencies, Aptos (APT), Chainlink (LINK), and ImmutableX (IMX) were the only ones in the green, surging by as much as 6% based on various growth factors, some of which were speculated.

Analysts at the trading firm FxPro have expressed a bearish outlook for the next few weeks, with price expectations as low as $23,000. This sentiment is driven by the general lack of interest in trading riskier assets and the absence of significant market-moving catalysts.

Despite the short-term bearishness, there's still optimism among some traders. CryptoQuant, an on-chain data platform, published a weekly note suggesting that Bitcoin's recent price performance closely resembles past market cycles. This analysis hints that Bitcoin will likely remain in a consolidation phase until the halving event in 2024 but anticipates a substantial price increase afterward.

Various long-term valuation metrics, including logarithmic growth curves, support this assessment. Additionally, the realized cap of short-term user transactions (UTXOs) indicates undervaluation and a lack of widespread retail speculation, reinforcing the potential for future price growth.

Historically, Bitcoin prices have surged following halving events, which occur approximately every four years when block rewards are halved. The estimated date for the next halving is April 21, as per available data.

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